Blog

May 21, 2025

Market View 2025: MLG Capital’s Strategic Outlook for Private Real Estate

Timothy Wallen

Each year, MLG Capital issues its Market View commentary to offer a clear, data– driven perspective on the state of the private commercial real estate market. In Spring 2025, CEO Tim Wallen, President Billy Fox, and CIO Dan Price convened to discuss market trends and where they see opportunity in the market today.    The following highlights from our 2025 Market View discussion explore where we see risk, where we see resilience, and why we are actively deploying capital in the current environment.  Key Themes from the Spring 2025 Market View Discussion Soft net operating income (NOI) is creating tactical entry points, not permanent impairments.  Operating income across multifamily assets has come under short–term pressure due to record supply deliveries in 2023 and 2024, particularly in high-growth markets such as the Sunbelt. This temporary imbalance has generally reduced occupancies, flattened rent growth, and increased concessions. MLG views this softness not as structural deterioration, but as a cyclical occurrence that is already beginning to normalize in select markets. As operational performance recovers, assets acquired during this window may benefit from meaningful NOI growth over the mid– to long–term.  The supply and demand imbalance is correcting and setting the stage for future…

April 15, 2025

Navigating 2025 Market Volatility: Why Private Real Estate May Offer Stability for Investors 

Timothy Wallen

The public markets are experiencing high volatility—driven by sweeping tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and investor anxiety around a potential economic slowdown. In this kind of environment, many high-net-worth investors are re-evaluating their asset allocation strategies. One increasingly popular question: Is it time to move beyond the public markets? While publicly traded REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) offer exposure to real estate, they behave more like stocks than the underlying real estate itself. This is because public REITs trade on exchanges and are subject to the same sentiment-driven swings as the broader equity markets. This disconnect highlights the key difference between public REITs and private real estate investments: private real estate is less correlated to public markets. At MLG Capital, we track and compare the performance of public equities, REITs, and private real estate using trusted benchmarks like the S&P 500, the IYR ETF (for public REITs), and the NCREIF Property Index (for institutional private real estate). Historically, and continuing into this volatile 2025 environment, private real estate has shown considerably lower volatility and less correlation with the ups and downs of the stock market. Overexposure to highly correlated, and currently volatile assets, may result in increased risk when compared with a…

January 14, 2025

Meet Our Newest Principals

As we begin a new chapter at MLG Capital, we are proud to announce an expanded leadership structure under the continued guidance of CEO Tim Wallen. This change reflects our commitment to fostering long-term growth and ensuring a sustainable future for our company. Effective immediately, we are excited to welcome five outstanding team members as Principals within our organization. Billy Fox: President and Principal Billy Fox, a dedicated member of MLG for the past decade, has been named President and Principal, and will remain a key member of the Investment Committee. In this role, Billy will lead efforts to enhance team building, refine investment strategies, and improve the overall customer experience. Known for his intelligence, empathy, and hard work, Billy exemplifies the qualities of a true leader. His vision and dedication will strengthen MLG’s culture and continue the tradition of providing exceptional service to our clients and investors. Dan Price: Chief Investment Officer and Principal With 16 years in the commercial real estate industry, including four years at MLG, Dan Price has been named Chief Investment Officer and Principal. As CIO, Dan will oversee the development of diversified and attractive real estate funds, bringing his deep industry relationships and market…

January 13, 2025

2024 Year in Review

Timothy Wallen

As we close the chapter on 2024, I want to take a moment to reflect on a year defined by purposeful growth, resilience, and the pursuit of excellence. Guided by over 37 years of experience, our team has remained steadfast in our mission: to provide access to a variety of investment opportunities that deliver tax-efficient cash flow and long-term appreciation. Thank you to our investors, deal partners and industry partners for your trust and partnership. To download our 2024 Year-end newsletter, click here or on the image below, and join us in celebrating the collective accomplishments that would not have been possible without your support.

October 10, 2024

What is the J-Curve?

Zach Hohl

The term “J-curve” is a concept often used to describe the typical investment performance trajectory of private equity and real estate funds over time. It represents the pattern of cash flows and returns that investors can usually expect during the lifecycle of these types of funds. The J-curve’s name is derived from the shape of the curve, which resembles the letter “J” when plotted on a graph, with time on the horizontal axis and returns on the vertical axis. When applied to real estate funds, the typical J-curve illustrates an initial dip in performance, a gradual increase, and eventual positive returns (as demonstrated on the graph below). Understanding the J-curve is important for investors, fund managers, and related parties as it provides insights into the expected timing of returns and the associated risks of investing in private real estate. The Stages of the J-Curve Stage 1: Investment Period (Capital Deployed into Markets) Stage 2: Value Creation (Operational, Financial, and Managerial Improvements) Stage 3: Harvest Period (Exit Investments to Realize Gains) Understanding the Stages of the J-Curve Stage 1: Investment Period This initial downturn is primarily due to the upfront costs associated with establishing the fund and acquiring real estate, such…

September 23, 2024

2024 Annual Fall Event

We recently had the privilege of hosting investors, partners, and team members at our headquarters for our Annual Fall Event! With nearly 350 registrants, the event was a tremendous success, made even more memorable by the enthusiastic participation of everyone who attended. From start to finish, the evening was filled with excitement, inspiration, and meaningful connections.  One of the highlights of the evening was the panel discussion featuring Principal & CEO, Tim Wallen, along with SVPs Billy Fox and Daniel Price, and moderated by VP Nathan Clayberg. The panelists shared their deep insights into what sets MLG apart, our perspective on the current market, and our proven investment strategy. Their expertise and perspectives highlighted the essence of MLG and the strategic vision guiding our approach.  During the event, there were countless opportunities for networking, great conversation, and exploring new partnerships. The room was energetic as individuals and industry leaders exchanged ideas, shared experiences, and celebrated each other’s successes.   As we reflect on this remarkable evening, we are excited about the opportunities ahead. We look forward to continuing our collaboration, fostering innovation, and celebrating ongoing successes!  View Photos From the Event Here (Click image for photos of the evening)

September 17, 2024

2024 MLG Market View: Navigating the Private Real Estate Investment Market

Timothy Wallen

2024 Insights The real estate market is constantly evolving, influenced by macroeconomic pressures, shifting work habits, and changing investor sentiment. Each Fall we share our insights on the multifamily, industrial, retail, and office sectors, along with the current trends in capital markets.   Above you’ll find a quick video of Tim Wallen, Principal & CEO, Billy Fox, Senior Vice President and Dan Price, Senior Vice President, sharing their core takeaways. If you’d like, you can download a full explanation of our Market View by asset class and full deck presentation below in this post.   Here’s a breakdown of the key takeaways from the MLG Capital 2024 Market View:  Multifamily Sector: Long term stability amid short term supply wave   The multifamily sector continues to demonstrate resilience, even as broader economic challenges persist. Our analysis underscores the enduring appeal of multifamily investments:  Sustained Demand: Demand for multifamily housing remains strong.  Continued population and household formation growth combined with increasing unaffordability of single-family homes, driven by higher mortgage rates and home prices, is pushing more people into renting. Further, many renters are renting for longer as marriage and having children are pushed out to later ages, bolstering the multifamily market.  Short–Term Supply…